An Interview With a Special Guest...

And The Story of Timmy

Hey guys,

I hope you are all doing well.

This newsletter is going to be different from the usual. I have a little surprise for you at the end, but I’m going to start with a story about Timmy.

Timmy has always wanted a camper van. He wanted to drive along winding roads. To camp next to the sea. The crashing of the waves gently rocking him to sleep. To wake up and dive straight into the water before cooking breakfast on the beach.

So why didn’t he just buy one?

Well, he knew he should buy one in winter when they were cheaper, but he had a problem.

As soon as winter came around, he forgot all about van life and the sea.

People stopped talking about camping and so did he. Conversations move on to whatever it is people talk about in winter, and slowly Timmy forgot all about his van dreams.

Before long, it was getting hot again. Summer was around the corner and people were talking about vans and camping again! Prices started to rise and Timmy kicked himself for being late again. Why didn’t he buy a van in winter?! It seemed so simple.

Here is a chart of the amount of people who search ‘camper van’ in google. Unsurprisingly, every single peak occurs in peak summer around July/August.

Human behaviour is often so predictable.

Here’s another chart of an asset with its own seasons.

During the Bitcoin summer, everyone wants to buy Bitcoin. The ‘crypto guy’ in each group looks like a genius, and everyone is telling their friends they need to invest.

During the winter, it’s quite the opposite. Everyone’s portfolio is down 80% and no one is telling anyone they should invest. People pray that the ‘crypto guy’ in the group will recover, and everyone slowly stops checking their portfolio every day.

You can guarantee that Timmy will fall into this same routine whether he buys a van or Bitcoin. It’s why it’s estimated that 90% of all investors lose money in the stock market. People just love to follow the hype. Whether it’s tech stocks, NFT’s, Tulips or Vans, it’s all the same human behaviour.

So the morale of the story is that we all have a little Timmy inside of us. Everyone. But even if we have a Timmy, it doesn’t mean we need to be Timmy. We can detach ourselves from our Timmy and try to think objectively.

Right now we are in a stocks and Bitcoin bear market, and it looks like housing is also rolling over. In this newsletter, I mostly talk about Bitcoin, so we’ll focus on that.

It’s winter people. Deep winter. Whether we have passed the solstice is not yet clear. However, one thing we can be fairly sure of, is that we are close.

Now is the time to do your research and learn about Bitcoin. I cannot stress it enough. Buy that Bitcoin book you were thinking of reading. Read that article that you’ve been meaning to check out.

Whatever it is, now is the time to start dabbling.

If you want some book recommendations, checkout The Bitcoin Standard, (L)earn Bitcoin and The Price of Tomorrow.

The #1 Bitcoin podcast, ‘What Bitcoin Did’, also has a great beginners series.

I believe the next year will be very choppy. Up down up down. There is a recession looming, and it is not yet clear how this will affect markets.

There are some very experienced macro people (CowShed podcast next Tuesday) who think a recession won’t affect markets and that we will see a replay of post March 2020 where the world was at a standstill, yet markets pumped for the next few years due to the money printing. However, there are also other very qualified macro voices who have the complete opposite view.

The macro is extremely uncertain at the moment, and this is why I push the simple DCA strategy - on the 1st of every month for the rest of 2023 I automatically buy some BTC. In addition, on any major dips, I will also be buying.

I’m currently using Luno for a mixture of reasons, and if you wish to do the same, we both get £10 of free Bitcoin if you enter the code BPTATSUKI in the rewards section after setting up an account. If you do so and you are a beginner to Bitcoin, checkout this beginner webinar Jason Deane runs.

Now, with all that out the way. The meat of the newsletter.

I recently had the pleasure of interviewing Siam Kidd. He’s an ex-pilot and has been trading since the age of 18. He’s founded numerous businesses, including ‘TheRealisticTrader’, where he helps people understand wealth generation.

This conversation began with his background and outlook on the markets and transitioned into how he thinks about building a business.

We touch on what he sees as the biggest asymmetric bets, how he invests his money, and we ended up doing a beginners’ introduction to technical analysis (charting).

I learnt a lot, but he also voiced a lot of the similar thoughts I’ve been having surrounding where the crypto market, so I wanted to share it with you here.

This will be going live on the main CowShed channel in a few weeks, but we have a few other podcasts to upload beforehand, so it’s currently only accessible to you guys as I decided to upload it privately and get it to you as soon as possible.

If you enjoy, there will be a new episode every Tuesday, so make sure to subscribe.

Have the best weekend,

Tats

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Library

• Bullish - Causing, expecting, or characterized by rising stock market prices.

• Bearish - Causing, expecting, or characterized by falling stock market prices.

• Bear Trap - Tricking everyone that price is going to break down, before moving up.

• Bull Trap - Tricking everyone that price is going to break up, before crashing down.

• DCA - Dollar Cost Average. Investing incrementally on fixed schedule.

• DEX - Decentralised exchange.

• EMA - Exponential moving average

• ETF - Exchange traded fund. A type of security that tracks an index, sector, commodity, or other asset, but which can be purchased or sold on a stock exchange the same way a regular stock can.

• Fed - The Federal Reserve, central banking system of the US.

• Fiat Currency - Fiat money is government-issued currency that is not backed by a physical commodity, such as gold or silver.

• FOMC - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System.

• Fractal - Repeating patterns from the past.

• HODL - To hold your coins and not sell them despite crashes in price.

• MA - Moving average.

• S/R - Support/Resistance level.

• Stablecoin - A cryptocurrency pegged to a traditional fiat currency, like the dollar.

• Whale - A very large holder of Bitcoin.

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The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial legal or tax advice. The content of this email is solely the opinions of the write who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss. The writer does not guarantee any particular outcome.